Trevor Abes: Writer

Category: Investing

Getting Your Investing Mind Right

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Arguably, the hardest part of investing for the long term in broad stock index funds—this includes funds that track the total US Market, Developed International Markets, Emerging Markets, or the Global Stock Market— is keeping one’s psychology in check during market extremes. 

When funds have been going up for a handful of years, most of us think the trend will continue and want to buy more shares. Even though we have to pay an increasingly high price to do so. 

When funds have been dropping for a long stretch, most of us figure it’ll get worse and feel we should sell. Even though prices haven gotten cheaper and thus more appealing.

Why do we act like this? Human nature.

How do we fix it?

One. By setting a range for how high and low stock markets can go, as per the historical record, to get an idea of good lows to buy more of, and good highs to dollar-cost-average into until prices improve. Selling investments should be limited to the reasons you invested in the first place. 

How much can markets rise before a recession knocks them down to fair value? Australia’s stock market has gone more than a quarter century without one.

How much can a country’s stock market drop, and how soon? Eighty percent is a reasonable worst case scenario. This happened in the US over two years in the late 1920s and early 1930s with the market taking over 25 years to recover. It happened again, this time over a couple decades, during the double-digit inflation of the 1960s and 1970s. 

Historically speaking, though, any time a broad index is down double digits (over 10%) constitutes poor performance and thus a buying opportunity/sale/good deal. This with the knowledge that it could drop another 70% or more and get that much sweeter.

Two. By remembering that, excluding problems with the fund’s management or issuing company, a broad market index fund going out of business would require the industrial complexes of the countries they track to go out of business too. And that’s next to impossible, whether in Canada or Spain or South Africa. Barring investment company bankruptcy, dips in your index funds’ prices per share will eventually recover. It may take many years, so it’s up to you to ensure an appropriate time horizon.

Three. By holding firm that, to benefit from index investing in stocks over the long-term, i.e. make money, you have to invest regularly and stay invested—continuously— in a diversified portfolio for ideally a decade or more.

That’s how you watch your index funds drop in value without panic-selling to avoid the stress. Easier said than done? Absolutely. 

But when you compare how inflation currently cuts what you can buy with the money in your savings account by 2% per year, every year, with a diversified portfolio’s long-term expected return of 7% per year, giving into fear looks a lot like very slowly going broke.

You can learn more by reading my introduction to investing for young Canadians.

Disclaimer: This article is meant for general education purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice as I am unaware of your personal situation. Consult a professional who abides by a fiduciary standard before making any investment decisions.

Image by The Langmaid Practice.

 

My Favorite Investing Podcasts

There’s no particular order here. I’ve narrowed down what I like about each podcast with links to episodes I found memorable. All of these have shaped how I approach investing by teaching me fundamentals and new strategies, as well as instilling open-mindedness, thorough analysis, and the pursuit of financial independence. 

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Invest Like the Best is hosted by Patrick O’Shaughnessy, a philosophy major who found his way into investing management and approaches the discipline much like a philosopher might. Which is to say this podcast is for listeners interested in getting deep into the weeds of investing. It is about nerding out and dissecting concepts without thinking too hard about time. Discussions are usually over an hour and quite wide ranging, covering stuff like innovation, decision making, and venture capital. Guests are predominantly of O’Shaughnessy’s caliber, able to meet his probing genuine intellectual curiosity with insights that have undoubtedly improved my understanding of investment risk. O’Shaughnessy is a quant, meaning he employs data and computer models to take human discretion out of the investment process. I particularly enjoyed “The Wu Tang Clan of Finance with Team Ritholtz” and “Cultivating a Disaster Resistant, Compound Interest Machine”

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The Meb Faber Show. Meb runs an investment company that practices trend following, which means buying stocks, bonds, and other assets based on the directions their prices have been going, usually over the last 6-12 months. He is a natural conversationalist, thorough with his questioning, but just as happy to compare favourite tequilas, or reminisce about a tangentially related memory from his youth. The guests are just as instructive as O’Shaughnessy’s, with many years of experience in the industry, but much more accessible to newcomers to investing. Good place to start: any of the Radio Show episodes where Meb answers Twitter questions delivered by his sidekick, Geoff. 

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The Investor’s Podcast is hosted by Preston and Stig, both seasoned investors who favor in-depth assessments of a subject because to them buying stocks is an integral part of life. These gentlemen are systematically curious, in that they have interviewed opposing sides of every debate in the industry pretty much. Their educational mandate is to make discussions clear to everyday investors, regardless of complexity. This respect for everyday investors extends to the duo’s exacting separation of educational content for investors from the paid courses they offer those interested in greater depth. Like everyone else mentioned in this piece, their financial interests in podcasting don’t infringe on the depth of their discussions In a word, they’re fiduciaries. Try: Investing in Women With Sharon Vosmek.
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Odd Lots is a Bloomberg podcast that stands out for focusing on niche topics that don’t get wide coverage in the mainstream financial press, of which Bloomberg is very much a part. Lots of stuff on cryptocurrency, financial history, fraud, monetary policy, and more. The added benefit here is the dynamic duo of hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, who get along famously, even though it seems like they couldn’t be any more different in terms of taste and style. Try: How a Fraudster Pulled Off An Infamous Scheme.

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The Acquirer’s Podcast, hosted by Tobias Carlisle, features in-depth interviews, mostly with active managers willing to run through their strategies with him. It’s instructive if you oversee your own investments and want to learn about how the pros are thinking about the best investment prospects. Carlisle is a value investor, so his questions tend to tilt toward different ways of determining if companies are selling for cheaper than they should be. He is also a kind and considerate interviewer, clearly interested in listening and learning from his guests rather than holding court before them. Try: Michael Mauboussin – Big Decisions, Luck, Skill, Complexity And Success In Investing.

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Animal Spirits presents the musings of investment analysts/advisors Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson. They cover investment news trends, what they’re reading and watching, as well as listener questions. They are also the living embodiment of contrast. Batnick is a brash New Yorker whose searing sarcastic burns are a perfect foil to Carlson’s considered, even-keeled demeanor. How they interrupt each other is like a well-choreographed dance. Both are rational in their analyses, like everyone else on this list, an antidote to the mainstream media’s bipolar coverage of the stock market’s ups and downs.

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Capital Allocators is the creation of a former hedge fund manager, Ted Seides. The greatness here lies in Seides transferring his investment skills to the podcast format. As a hedge fund manager, a huge part of the job is interviewing other investment managers to see if they’re worth investing with. It comes down to asking the right questions to determine emotional intelligence and the root of what drives their investment processes. This is exactly what Seides does on the podcast, picking managers’ brains for listeners that may have money to put to work. Along with O‘Shaughnessy, Carlisle, and Faber, he is a clear communicator who makes sometimes complex discussions easier to digest. Guests open up because he gives them a comfortable, educational space to do so. Try: Charley Ellis—Indexing and its Alternatives.
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Canadian Couch Potato covers the details of index fund investing, which is the most cost-effective way to get a decent return from capital markets over the long term. This is a contrarian podcast for Canada, because most people don’t index here, they’re active investors. Dan Bortolotti, the host, is a passionate advocate for the everyday Canadian investor. He isn’t afraid of and often relishes pointing out bogus advice when he hears it and setting the story straight on long-standing myths that scare people from investing their money. Sadly, Bortolotti put the podcast to rest back in August, but the 26 episodes he completed are a beginner’s education in and of themselves.
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Masters in Business is another Bloomberg show by Barry Ritholtz, who runs an asset management firm where Batnick and Carlson happen to work. Ritholz has been in the investing and financial blogging world for decades and knows everybody in the industry. This makes Masters in Business a priceless repository of interviews with almost anybody you can think of who has done anything significant in finance over the last 50 years. Off all these shows, I’ve learned the most from this one. You’re literally listening to geniuses have really relaxing hour-long conversations about their work. It’s the literary equivalent of having people like Miguel de Cervates, William Faulkner, Jane Austen, and Agatha Christie as regulars on your podcast. Because Economics is a much younger field than Literature, there are lots of greats who are still with us. The one thing I endure about Ritholtz is that he has a bad habit of talking over people, sometimes chiming in more than listening to a guest. Thankfully, it isn’t a pervasive thing. Try: Bill Bernstein: Efficient Frontier.

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Motley Fool Answers and Motley Fool Money are shows produced by The Motley Fool, an investment advisory service based in Virginia. The company believes in fundamental analysis, picking individual stocks, and holding them for the long term. It’s the kind of lens you can expect from the podcasts as well. Analysts discuss the latest in business news, argue for new stock picks, and answer listener questions about basic investment advice. While The Motley Fool’s written content can read like a road to riches, it is the farthest thing from the more prudent, research-heavy style of investing the podcasts get behind.

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The Long View, by investment statistics provider Morningstar, is concerned primarily with issues in financial planning and anything having to do with investing fundamentals for the everyday investor. Hosts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak are incisive with their questions and unwavering in their commitment to easing the general public’s fear of the stock market. Try: Rupal Bhansali: FAANG Stocks Are ‘Extremely Risky’.

 

I hope a few of these click with you and offer you something worthwhile. If you’re interested, check out my post on investing basics for young Canadians here.

 

Investing Is Hard And I Don’t Have Any Money: Savings Basics For Young Canadians

I’ve rewritten this article into an e-book called Nine Steps to Successful Investing: A Guide for Young Canadians. Find a copy in the shop.

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